IRAN

From watching CNN, reading Newsweek, Le Monde, Le Temps and other papers, I get the impression that America, Israel and Europeans view Iran as a terrorist state, which “owns” Syria, part of Lebanon through Hezbollah, and somehow helps Hamas in Palestine. Given the opportunity President Amadinijad would gladly make Israel disappear, therefore we must prevent Iran to acquire the A bomb.

OK. I don’t have any problem with this. Not that it should change the way we should deal with the Persians, but I would like to propose slightly different optics.

The same way Christians have Protestants and Catholics, Moslems have Shiites and Sunnis. Everybody is proselytizing the same way. The dominating Protestant Christian movements are in the US and it is from there than missionaries of all denominations are sent: Lutherans, Baptist, Mormons, etc..
The base for the Catholics is Rome and even though priests are sent from Spain, France or anywhere I believe the central “marketing” effort is there.
For Moslems the Sunni movement has clearly a directing base in Saudi Arabia.
The Mosque in Geneva and those in Paris for instance get funding from there. Management is sent and directed from Riyad as well.

For the Shiites it is Iran

How much of a conflict is there between Shiites and Sunnis is not something discussed on CNN. We know that some Shiites are persecuted in Pakistan the same way we know that Sunnis in Iraq are not getting many “signs of affection” from Iraqi Shiites. It has been written in Le Temps newspaper in Geneva that Saudi Arabia jointly with the US pushed for the invasion of Lebanon to kick Hezbollah’s ass and in consequence diminish Iran’s influence.
I imagine that since Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, Iran has been expansion minded. Never mind the fact that Iraqi Shiites don’t like Iranians. Iran would have conquered Iraq if Saddam had not stopped it. Iraq started the war but some say that some aggressions from Iran had started it. Even though he was a bad ass he brought a certain balance into the region. Now Iraq is waiting patiently for the US to leave. We’ll see how they will move next.
To expend as it wants Iran need a power of dissuasion. A Sunni country already has an atomic weapon. That’s Pakistan. The Islamists are already infiltrated in parts of the government and it is not totally impossible that one day they will take power. (Frightening thought, much more than Iran having the bomb).
The religious leaders of Iran are probably much smarter than “Amadibaby”, they think for the long term and they think expansion.
Amadinijad has apparently the same IQ or even lower than George W. He picked up where Saddam left:” I am the biggest kid on the block, I say and do anything that I want”. He has the blessing of his bosses when he says he wants to destroy Israel but I think it’s a fig leave. The bomb they want is not for Israel. Not primarily anyway. They don’t want the Sunnis to mess with them. Saudi Arabia is not going to let Iran massacre its Sunni brothers. If Iran had an atomic weapon the “rapport de force” would be different.
In Geneva, when Francois Heisbourg ( check him out on Google) presented his new book about Iran, I asked him what he thought of my idea. He did not say anything really. He did not criticize it but did not endorse it either. Some of the Iranians who were in the audience came to me and shook my hand like if I had nailed something. Who knows?